Do leveraged warrants prompt individuals to speculate on stock price reversals?

Using proprietary data on bank-issued knock-out warrants written on a stock index, we find that individual investors’ aggregate warrant portfolio speculates against the short-term trend of the index. We argue that contrarian trading is driven by the interaction of product design and investors’ preference for large leveraged positions. Investors tend to open larger positions whenever warrants offer higher leverage. As a result, investors open an aggregate long position when calls offer higher leverage than puts. Since knock-out leverages move systematically with the underlying, aggregate warrant positions become contrarian even if investors do not intend to speculate on reversals.     

违约与杠杆周期——一个带有救助的金融加速器模型

我国为应对2008年国际金融危机的冲击采取了一系列经济刺激政策,在发挥“稳增长”作用的同时,也在一定程度上导致我国企业部门杠杆水平快速上升,但与此同时,不良贷款率并没有随企业部门杠杆的上升而显著增加。为了解释企业部门违约与杠杆的周期特征,本文在金融加速器模型(Bernanke et al.,1999)基础上,引入政府对企业部门的违约救助机制,建立DSGE模型进行讨论。进一步地,本文还通过一个不合意的去杠杆政策试验表明,忽略资产价格稳定(或者说金融稳定)前提下的去杠杆政策,反而会使企业部门的杠杆和违约率同时上升到一个较高水平。最后,引入一个盯住预期资产价格的动态救助规则能够发挥稳定经济的作用,并提高社会福利水平。     

中国高技术产业技术创新效率影响因素研究——一个理论框架

系统识别高技术产业技术创新效率影响因素，厘清影响因素之间的相互作用关系，对于有针对性地制定高技术产业技术创新效率提升策略具有重要意义。运用文献编码分析方法，对中国知网中检索到的2000-2018年中国高技术产业技术创新效率影响因素相关文献进行编码与提炼，构建高技术产业技术创新效率影响因素综合研究框架。研究发现：高技术产业技术创新效率影响因素主要包括创新要素质量、产业组织因素、产业集聚水平、产业开放程度、产业创新导向、技术因素和环境因素；影响因素之间的相互作用关系错综复杂，共同影响高技术产业技术创新效率水平。最后，提出促进高技术产业技术创新效率提升的相关策略。     

中国省际区域经济差距演进及协调发展

实现区域协调发展是新时代中国区域高质量发展的必然要求。改革开放以来,中国省际区域经济差距经历了差距拉大—逐渐缩小—缓慢增大—逐渐缩小—维持不变的过程,逐步趋于收敛,其深层原因在于经济发展基础、资本投入、区域要素配置、区域要素使用和制度因素的地区异质性。推进区域经济协调发展,要不断加强对中西部地区的资本投入,优化资源配置,提高全要素生产率,提升开放水平,推进贸易高质量发展,完善与区域协调发展总体战略要求相适应的宏观区域政策和区域管理体制。     

Contraction flexibility,operating leverage,and financial leverage

This study investigates the impacts of contraction flexibility and operating leverage on financial leverage from the perspective of the agency conflict between shareholders and debtholders. In a continuous-time real option framework, we demonstrate that shareholders’ contraction flexibility may have an adverse effect on financial leverage, and that the substitution relation between operating leverage and financial leverage is persistent or pronounced in the presence of contraction flexibility. The evidence from Chinese listed firms not only supports our theoretical predictions well, but also offers a method to examine the agency conflict hypothesis. We suggest that the high proportion of bank loans or long-term debt in total liabilities can help levered firms alleviate the agency problem arising from contraction decisions.     

Financial statement comparability and bank risk-taking

This study examines the relationship between financial statement comparability and bank risk-taking. Our analysis of a sample of publicly listed U.S. banks over the 1994–2019 period shows that banks with more comparable financial statements are related to significantly less risk-taking. We also find that the negative relationship between comparability and risk-taking is more pronounced for firms with more severe moral hazard and agency problems. Our documented findings are robust across alternative measures of comparability and risk-taking and considering change analysis, after controlling for strength of corporate governance and using propensity score matching and two-stage least squares estimation to address endogeneity concerns. Our analysis also shows that the relationship between financial statement comparability and bank risk-taking is stronger for smaller banks than for larger banks. Overall, this study provides unique insights into the role of financial statement comparability in curbing risk-taking in the banking sector.     

It makes me feel vulnerable! The impact of public self-disclosure on online complaint behavior

Genuine reviews are essential for financial performance and for customer trust. In the case of a negative experience, withholding negative reviews may lead to biased online information. This paper aims to investigate two factors that may prompt customers to withhold their complaints (i.e., identity disclosure and locus of control). The study adopts a sequential exploratory mixed-method approach. An exploratory interview phase compares public vs anonymous online environments, and explores the reasons why dissatisfied customers might decide not to complain. An experiment then shows that vulnerability is a key mechanism preventing negative reviews. This effect is exaggerated when customers perceive that they do not have control over the events happening in their lives (i.e., external locus of control). Our work uncovers an important determinant of online complaint behavior, vulnerability. It also offers practical suggestions, such as improving confidentiality, to increase a customer's willingness to complain following a negative experience.     

数据的要素化过程及其与传统产业数字化的融合机制研究

从生产过程和价值创造来看,数据具备了传统生产要素所具备的功能,但又具有区别于传统生产要素的新特征。数据作为一种新型生产要素,对于数字产业化的高速发展和传统产业数字化进程的深入推进,具有关键作用。数据要素的形成和发展一方面需要与数字产业化、产业数字化融合发展进程相适应;另一方面,数据要素的形成过程本身又是与传统产业数字化进程的一个深度技术融合过程。因而,多样化和异质性的数据要素,其实质乃是数字技术与传统产业专用性技术融合的结果,其间的融合机制表现为深化、促进和多元性。     

中国金融系统风险溢出效应研究——基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络

文章基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络方法，从静态和动态分别度量我国金融系统不同子市场间的风险联动水平及变动趋势。研究结果表明，我国金融系统风险溢出效应整体水平较高，各市场间联动性较强；市场内部滞后效应大于市场之间溢出效应，两两有向溢出效应具有强不对称性；作为我国金融系统的风险中心，货币市场始终处于风险溢出方，但在金融危机时期，其对外风险溢出效应相对减弱，而大宗商品市场、资本市场、房地产市场等其余市场的风险溢出效应相对增强。值得注意的是，当前我国金融系统整体风险溢出水平较高，市场间风险相关性较强，需要进一步加强系统性风险的监测与防范。     

金融资源配置、技术进步与经济高质量发展

随着我国发展阶段及内外部条件的变化,科技创新已成为新时代引领我国经济高质量发展的核心驱动力。本文以金融驱动技术进步的视角,构建内生增长DSGE模型,分析金融资源配置、技术进步和经济增长之间的关系。研究佐证了我国技术创新的逆周期性,并发现金融资源在企业生产性投资与创新投资之间的分配,可以通过改变生产要素投入规模和技术进步率两种途径影响经济增长,且这两种影响之间存在“跷跷板”关系,但后者更具主导性。在此基础上,诠释了金融、技术与经济的动态传导机制:经济扩张期,企业生产规模扩张,金融资源对生产性投资的支持增加,对创新的投入相对减少,技术进步率放缓;经济收缩期,企业缩减生产规模,金融资源对生产性投资的支持减少,对创新的投入相对增加,技术进步率提升。本研究的政策启示为,面对当前发展新矛盾、新挑战,应把握发展新格局、新机遇,进一步深化金融改革,优化金融资源配置机制,鼓励创新投资,充分发挥股权市场对企业研发创新的支持作用,并辅以稳健适度的宏观调控政策,为企业创新提供良性的宏观环境,激活企业创新需求,促进技术进步,推动经济高质量发展。